The growth of 0.4% of the German GDP in the third trimester alienates the hope of a less profound recession Economy

Alemania encara el invierno bastante mejor de lo que predijero los institutos económicos y el propio Gobierno. The gross domestic product (GDP) of the major economy of the Old Continent accelerated its rate of expansion in the third quarter to 0.4%, one tenth more than the estimate. El dato, conocido este viernes, sumado a otros signos esperanzadores, da alas a la confianza en que la recesión que se abate sobre el país sea también less profunda de lo pronosticado.

El crecimiento del 0.4% está muy por encima del incremento del 0.1% registrado entre abril y junio, destaca la Oficina Federal de Estadística (Destatis) alemana, y supera la previsión provisional que la propia institución adelantó a finales de octubre.

The long-awaited index of the business climate of the Ifo Institute, the most important economic barometer, publicado este jueves, también se ha visto como un indicio de que la recesión, que nadie duda que llegará, al menos será más suave. The confidence of German entrepreneurs rebounded in November but in the second consecutive month it reached 86.3 points, the highest value since last month of August.

“Although the companies are somewhat less satisfied with their current business, pessimism with respect to the next few months has reduced drastically,” said the president of the Ifo, Clemens Fuest. The DAX, the selective index of Frankfurt, rose this Thursday by 0.78% after the improvement of business confidence in Germany in November and signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) that it will curb the rise in interest rates .

Confidence of consumers

Also, the confidence of consumers improved significantly in the month of December, according to the study elaborated by the consultant GfK, which is at -40.2 points, compared to -41.9 from the previous month, which suggests that the desplome observado en los ultimos meses puede haber tocado fondo. According to Rolf Bürkl, consumer expert of GfK, “the old fear of consumers that the prices of energy have disappeared has been alleviated a little”, which has positively impacted the confidence of buyers. The situation, sin embargo, “is still tense”, precisa en un comunicado de la compañía.

El Gobierno alemán, una coalition de socialemócratas, verdes y liberales, se resiste a ser optimista en público. “El invierno puede ser largo y duro”, repeated the Minister of Economy and Climate, the green Robert Habeck, this week in an interview on public television. Lo será menos gracias a los 200,000 millones de euros en ayudas govermental para empresas y ciudadanos con los que el Ejecutivo quiere aliviar la carga extra de los prices de la energía y que empiezará a notarse a partir de diciembre. Aunque contenido, el optimismo también se evidenza en el hecho de que casi se da por descartado un racionamiento de gas que habría puesto en muchas dificultados a la industria alemana.

“In general, the German economy is still robust”, empieza el comunicado de Destatis sobre el dato del PIB. Y destaca que el crecimiento aumenta “despite the difficult general conditions in the world economy, like the continuation of the Covid-19 pandemic, the bottle necks in deliveries, the continuous price increases and the war in Ukraine”.

The GDP of the third quarter of 2022 increased by 1.2% year-on-year adjusted for price and 1.3% adjusted for price and calendar with respect to the third quarter of 2021. The growth percentage increased considerably in the second quarter, which was it comes out to 0.1%. Entre enero y marzo el crecimiento había sido del 0.8%. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, the last quarter prior to the start of the Covid-19 crisis, the German GDP exceeded, but first, the level prior to the pandemic in the third quarter of 2022 (+0.3% ).

In the third quarter of the year, the economic growth was mainly driven by the final consumption expenditure of households, because, despite the drop in purchasing power, consumers took advantage of the opportunity to travel and leave more, after which they levantaran todas las restrictions imposed por la pandemia, señala la oficina estatística alemana. And that’s why the conditions were very negative: high inflation, high energy prices and supply problems.

The data detailed in the GfK index show that the income expectations of German consumers increased in November for the second time in a row, after the historical minimum of September 2022, with an advance of the indicator of 6.2 points, up to -54. 3 points.

En este marco, el gasto en consumo final de los hogares aumentó un 1% respectado al segundo trimester, mientras que el gasto de consumo final del Gobierno se mantuvo approximately en el nivel del previous trimester. Pese a ello, GfK señala que la propensión a comprar sufrió un leve retroceso de 1.1 puntos, duboto al impacto que han tenido en los hogares las primeras energetías del invierno, más elevadas que las anteriores. El contrapunto: las perspectivas económicas de los consumptives se stabilizan tras las medidas para contenar los precios energeticos.

En conjunto, the foreign trade increased, despite the difficult international situation. Thanks to the continuous high stock of orders and the improvement of supply chains worldwide, Germany’s exports of goods and services increased by 2% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the second quarter of 2022, while the aumento de las importaciones del 2.4% fue incluso superior al de las exportaciones. Likewise, gross capital formation in construction decreased by 1.4% and gross capital formation in machinery and equipment increased by 2.7%.

EL PAÍS de la mañana

Despiértate con el analísis del día por Berna González Harbour

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